THIS WEEK’S BREAKDOWN

Mark Carney Won. So Why Are Investors More Worried Than Celebrating?

If you were waiting for Canada’s election to throw the markets into chaos, you might be waiting a long time.
Mark Carney’s win wasn’t a shock to the system — it was more like a soft thud.

But here’s the thing: calm elections don't mean calm markets. Under the surface, a global trade war is heating up, and that’s what could actually move your portfolio.

Let’s dig in.

Experience matters, but it doesn’t erase trade wars.

1. Carney Brings Stability, But Not a Blank Check

Mark Carney’s resume looks like something out of a leadership fantasy draft: former Bank of Canada governor, Bank of England boss, and private sector heavyweight at Brookfield. Investors like stability, and Carney brings that in spades. But without a majority government, he’ll have to negotiate most of his agenda — meaning no major economic overhauls without serious compromise.

Bottom line: Stability is nice... but it won't shield Canadian or U.S. markets from what's coming next.

When old systems crack, new opportunities emerge.

Looking Ahead: Green Investing in an Unstable World

If there’s one big takeaway from everything happening right now — Carney’s election, Trump’s tariffs, global supply chain chaos — it’s this: the world economy is shifting in real time.
Countries are scrambling to secure resources, rethink energy, and rebuild supply chains for a new era.

That’s where the Green Investing Thematic Strategy comes in.
While trade wars rattle traditional industries, the future is leaning hard into clean energy, critical minerals, water technology, and sustainable infrastructure.

This strategy is built for exactly this kind of moment:

• High-growth sectors: Heavy exposure to renewables, eco-transportation, and resource management — the industries rising as old systems falter.

• Top companies and emerging leaders: Tesla, NextEra Energy, Enphase Energy, and others pushing innovation forward while legacy sectors navigate volatility.

• Proven performance: +147.81% all-time return compared to the S&P 500’s +92.79%, showing strength even through recent market turbulence.

• Real resilience: Moderate risk score (2.28) and focused diversification, offering exposure to tomorrow’s dominant sectors today.

It’s clear that governments, businesses, and investors aren’t just talking about sustainability anymore — they’re investing billions to build it.
And strategies like this are designed to capture the momentum of that global transition.

Markets are evolving fast. Portfolios should too.

Forget elections — tariffs are rewriting the rulebook.

2. Trump’s Tariffs Are the Real Wild Card

Trump’s trade policy isn't just headline material; it's deeply reshaping supply chains. Canada faces 25% tariffs on goods, steel, aluminum, autos, and even energy. They responded with $60B in counter-tariffs.

This standoff raises the cost of doing business on both sides of the border — and that eventually hits earnings, margins, and, yep, stock prices.

If you’re exposed to sectors like autos, manufacturing, or commodities, keep a close eye on quarterly reports. Tariff impact won’t always be obvious until earnings roll out.

Carney’s already putting money where his mouth is

3. A $2B Bet on Canada's Auto Industry

One of Carney’s first moves? Creating a $2 billion fund to protect Canadian auto workers and supply chains.
It's a defensive strategy aimed at blunting U.S. tariffs' impact on Canada’s most important manufacturing sector.

U.S. automakers source heavily from Canadian suppliers. Even if Trump softens some auto tariffs temporarily, supply chains are tangled — and that spells unpredictable earnings for both Canadian and American car companies.

Watchlist sectors: Auto parts suppliers, transport logistics, EV production chains.

Trade war = time to diversify supply chains.

4. Clean Energy and Critical Minerals Are in Play

Carney isn't just reacting to tariffs. He’s pushing a bigger pivot:

• $5 billion to find new trading partners beyond the U.S.

• Major investments into clean energy and critical minerals.

Translation: Canada is trying to future-proof its economy — and investors should take note.
Critical minerals (like lithium, cobalt, nickel) and clean energy tech will only get more important, especially if geopolitical tensions keep fragmenting global trade.

If you're a long-term investor, sectors like critical minerals ETFs, battery tech, and renewable infrastructure could be worth a deeper look.

The CAD-USD dance matters more than you think.

5. Currency Movements Could Hit Your Portfolio

When elections shift expectations for rate cuts or economic growth, currencies react.
With Carney likely pushing for fewer Bank of Canada cuts, the Canadian dollar could stay stronger compared to the U.S. dollar — at least in the near term.

If you own Canadian stocks, a stronger CAD can boost returns when converted back to USD. If you're importing goods or running a U.S. business reliant on Canadian parts, it could mean higher costs.

Consider currency exposure when evaluating your portfolio's international holdings.

Final Thoughts: Don't Chase Headlines, Watch the Trends

Mark Carney’s election win might feel like a "business as usual" moment — but in investing, the undercurrents matter way more than the headlines.

Trade wars. Supply chain shifts. Sector realignments. Currency volatility.
Those are the real forces shaping where the markets go from here.

At Surmount, we help you cut through the noise and invest smarter.
Our automated strategies are built to adapt to changing market conditions — without you having to obsess over every trade war headline.

If you're serious about building wealth in a world where stability is the exception, not the rule, automate smarter with Surmount.