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THIS WEEK’S BREAKDOWN

How to Build an All-Weather Portfolio That Can Handle Anything

Markets are unpredictable. One week we’re celebrating a soft landing and the next we’re Googling “what happens if inflation comes back.” Whether it’s rate hikes, war headlines, or tech stocks going vertical, most investors are just reacting to the chaos.

But what if you didn’t have to? What if you had a portfolio designed to survive and thrive in literally any economic environment?

That’s what Ray Dalio had in mind when he created the All-Weather Portfolio. The guy founded Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund on the planet. So yeah, he knows a thing or two. But here’s the kicker—you don’t need Dalio’s billions or a team of quants to make this strategy work for you.

Today, we’re breaking it all down. No jargon. No fluff. Just a blueprint to future-proof your money.

Our Mag 7 Strategy tracks execs who know what’s really going on.

🧠 Invest Like an Insider (Literally)

We all know the "Magnificent 7" (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla) have been the MVPs of the market for the past few years. But after a brutal Q1 in 2025 (the Bloomberg Mag 7 Index is down 16%, yikes), a lot of investors are unsure whether it’s time to bail... or double down.

Our take? Follow the money—their money.

Introducing Surmount’s Magnificent 7 Insider Trading Follower Strategy — a data-driven approach that tracks the real trades of executives and major shareholders in the biggest tech companies on Earth.

These aren’t Reddit threads or hype tweets. This strategy pulls from actual regulatory filings (like Form 4s) that insiders are legally required to submit when they buy or sell stock. We're talking about C-suite moves from the people who have skin in the game—and probably know where their ship is headed before the rest of us.

🧠 Why This Strategy Might Be a Long-Term Winner (Even After the Dip)

Yes, the Mag 7 got hit hard early this year. Tesla dropped 36%, Nvidia fell 17%, Alphabet slid 18%. But as analysts are pointing out, this may be the perfect setup for a longer-term value entry.

With AI demand still solid and companies tightening up their margins, the fundamentals are aligning. By following insider trading patterns, you're not guessing—you’re aligning with informed conviction.

Handling all four market seasons.

🧭 Why “All-Weather” Isn’t Just a Cute Name

Dalio’s idea is that the economy moves in predictable cycles—or “seasons”—based on two main forces: inflation and growth. When you combine the directions of these two (rising or falling), you get four potential environments:

1. Growth rising, inflation falling ✅ (golden era)

2. Growth falling, inflation rising 🔥 (stagflation)

3. Growth falling, inflation falling ❄️ (recession)

4. Growth rising, inflation rising 📈 (overheating)

Most portfolios are built for one or two of these—but the All-Weather strategy diversifies across all four, so you’re never completely exposed or blindsided.

Think of it like an all-terrain vehicle for your portfolio.

Rough breakdown of the All-Weather strategy.

🧱 The Core Recipe (a.k.a. Dalio’s OG Allocation)

Here’s the rough breakdown of the original All-Weather Portfolio:

• 30% Long-Term Treasury Bonds (yep, boring but powerful in deflation)

• 40% Stocks (for when the economy’s vibing)

• 15% Intermediate-Term Bonds

• 7.5% Gold (hedge against inflation & market chaos)

• 7.5% Commodities (broad inflation protection)

The genius is in the mix. Bonds do well when stocks tank. Commodities pick up slack when inflation runs hot. Stocks give you long-term upside. Gold is your oh-s*** insurance.

But here’s the part most people miss: it’s not about the assets themselves, it’s about how they interact. The diversification is intentional. It’s about minimizing drawdowns while still compounding growth over time.

The All-Weather Portfolio isn’t the fastest horse—but it’s one that rarely falls.

📉 What the Backtests Say (Spoiler: It’s Crazy Resilient)

Historical data (back to the 70s) shows:

• Average annual return: ~7–9%

• Max drawdown: ~10% (even during 2008!)

• Standard deviation: significantly lower than a 100% stock portfolio

For context, the S&P 500 dropped -55% in ‘08. All-Weather? It held up with less than a 20% loss and recovered faster. It’s not invincible, but it’s shockingly stable.

Perfect for folks who care more about preserving wealth and sleeping at night than YOLO-ing into Nvidia calls.

You don’t need to copy Dalio’s mix exactly to get the benefits.

🛠️ How to Customize It for Your Life

Here’s how to tweak it:

• Younger investor? Add a bit more equity exposure. Maybe 50% stocks instead of 40%.

• Can’t hold commodities directly? Use ETFs like $DBC or $GSG. Easy.

• Want to protect against currency risk? Add some international exposure or inflation-linked bonds.

• Don’t love bonds right now? Blend in short-term duration or floaters—rates are still wild in 2025.

The key principle: balance risks, not dollars. Use risk parity concepts to weight assets by volatility, not just capital. (Advanced—but platforms like ours can automate this for you 👀)

Dalio built it for hedge funds. We built it for you.

🚀 Why Surmount Makes This Easy

At Surmount, we believe smart investing should be accessible, not locked behind a Bloomberg terminal. Our platform lets you automate strategies—like the All-Weather Portfolio—across your existing brokerage account.

✅ Automated rebalancing
✅ Strategy customization (risk-based)
✅ Access to backtested, proven portfolios
✅ Transparent performance & low cost

No coding, no spreadsheets, no guesswork. Just clean execution and pro-level strategies—made simple.