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THIS WEEK’S BREAKDOWN

The Market’s Shaky Ground: What’s Next for Investors?

Markets have been on a wild ride lately. After a 10% pullback, analysts are starting to rethink their optimism for 2025. RBC Capital Markets just lowered its S&P 500 year-end target from 6,600 to 6,200, citing slowing economic growth and a tougher path ahead for stocks. This comes after similar cuts from Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research.

So, what’s going on? And more importantly—what should you do about it?

INNOVATION MEETS STABILITY IN A SECTOR BUILT FOR THE FUTURE

🚀 The Aerospace & Defense Edge: A High-Growth Investment Strategy

The Aerospace & Defense Strategy on Surmount isn’t just another stock-picking method—it’s a data-driven, innovation-focused portfolio designed to capitalize on the world’s most advanced defense and aerospace companies.

With an all-time return of 155% and an average annual return of 24.86%, this strategy outperforms the S&P 500 by focusing on companies with strong competitive moats, government contracts, and cutting-edge technology. By investing in leaders like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and General Dynamics (GD), this portfolio aligns with long-term trends in national security, space exploration, and next-gen aviation.

Why This Strategy Works

✔️ Industry Resilience: Defense budgets remain strong regardless of economic downturns
✔️ Innovation-Driven Growth: AI-powered drones, hypersonic weapons, and space exploration are shaping the future
✔️ Smart Risk Management: A balanced sector allocation ensures steady returns with controlled volatility

If you’re looking for a smart way to invest in tech while avoiding the noise of daily market swings, this strategy is built for you.

WHEN GROWTH TAKES A HIT, STOCKS FEEL THE PAIN

📉 The Economy Is Slowing—And So Is Market Confidence

One of the biggest reasons for the market’s recent dip is that economic growth expectations are cooling. RBC now projects U.S. GDP growth at 1.6% for 2025, down from 2%. While that’s still positive growth, history shows that when GDP falls into the 1.1% to 2% range, stocks tend to struggle. The market thrives on expansion, and when growth slows, investors start questioning whether corporate profits can keep up.

This explains why Wall Street is getting nervous. Companies have already started trimming their first-quarter earnings forecasts, signaling that the economic slowdown is hitting revenues. RBC even lowered its S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate from $271 to $264 for the year. That may seem like a small adjustment, but when multiplied across the entire index, it represents billions in lost profits—enough to put a dent in stock prices.

RATE CUTS ARE COMING… BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH FOR WALL STREET

🏦 The Fed Is Holding the Market Hostage

The Federal Reserve is set to meet this week, and while they’re expected to keep interest rates steady, investors are searching for any clue about when cuts might come. The market has been banking on at least two rate cuts in 2025, but sticky inflation could force the Fed to delay them. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers, slowing down growth even further.

For stocks, this is a double-edged sword. If the Fed cuts too soon, it could signal that the economy is weaker than expected. If they wait too long, high interest rates could strangle business investment and consumer spending. The uncertainty is part of why the S&P 500 is struggling to find its footing. Until the Fed provides clearer guidance, markets are likely to stay volatile.

TARIFFS HITTING YOUR PORTFOLIO

🇺🇸 Trade Wars Are Back—And Investors Should Pay Attention

As if slowing growth and rate uncertainty weren’t enough, President Trump’s new tariff policies have added another layer of risk. Higher tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, mean higher costs for businesses that rely on global supply chains. These costs either get passed on to consumers, driving inflation back up, or they eat into corporate profits—both of which are bad for stocks.

Historically, trade tensions have had a mixed impact on the market. In 2018-2019, tariffs led to short-term volatility but didn’t derail the bull market. The difference now is that the economy isn’t as strong as it was then, and companies are already dealing with weaker demand. If these trade policies escalate, they could further dampen business confidence and weigh on the market’s ability to recover.

BUYING THE DIP IS GREAT — IF YOU DON’T CATCH A FALLING KNIFE

📊 This Correction Isn’t a Golden Buying Opportunity—Yet

After a 10% drop, it’s tempting to see this as a buy-the-dip moment. But not all dips are created equal. Some corrections are short-term overreactions, while others signal deeper economic problems. The current pullback is driven by legitimate concerns—slower growth, weaker earnings, and policy uncertainty. That doesn’t mean stocks won’t recover, but it does mean that patience is key.

Instead of trying to time the exact bottom, a smarter approach is gradual investing. Dollar-cost averaging—where you invest in small chunks over time—helps you take advantage of lower prices without the risk of going all-in too soon. This strategy works well in volatile markets because it reduces the impact of short-term swings. If the market rebounds, you’ve started building a position. If it drops further, you’re still buying at lower prices.

VOLATILITY IS NORMAL, BUT YOUR STRATEGY SHOULD BE ROCK SOLID

🚀 Stay Strategic, Stay Focused

The market is in a period of uncertainty, but that doesn’t mean you should panic. Economic growth is slowing, but not collapsing. Earnings are softening, but still positive. Interest rates remain high, but cuts are likely coming. And while tariffs create additional risks, they also create opportunities for investors who know where to look.