Markets Wait on Powell: Solar Surge, Tech Jitters, and the Fed’s Big Stage

The dog days of August haven’t brought much calm to markets. On the surface, stocks look muted—barely moving across the major indexes. But beneath that quiet tape, sector shake-ups, policy catalysts, and anticipation for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech are stirring investors’ nerves. This week, solar stocks lit up on tax-credit optimism, Meta faltered under regulatory scrutiny, and retail earnings loomed large as a barometer of consumer strength. Add in geopolitics and the Fed’s looming spotlight, and it’s clear: the market may be flat, but the storylines are anything but.

📰 Top Story: Jackson Hole Preview—Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts Ahead?

Every August, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming becomes the focal point for global markets. Investors parse every syllable from the Federal Reserve Chair’s speech, and this year is no different. Jerome Powell will step up to the podium on Friday morning, facing a delicate balancing act.

Inflation has cooled compared to its peaks, but remains sticky in key areas like housing and services. Meanwhile, the labor market shows signs of softening, with job openings easing and wage growth moderating. Markets are betting that Powell could signal a shift toward rate cuts as soon as the fall, but the Fed has been careful not to overpromise.

The stakes are high: last year, Powell’s firm stance against early cuts briefly sent stocks tumbling. A more dovish tone this time could spark a rally in rate-sensitive sectors like tech, real estate, and small-caps. Conversely, if Powell stresses patience, investors may see more sideways trading until the Fed provides clarity.

💡 Short-term traders are watching Fed funds futures, which now price in roughly two cuts before year-end.

💡 Long-term investors may want to think about how monetary policy shapes broad asset allocation rather than betting on each speech. Historically, rate cycles—not individual meetings—drive performance over time.

☀️ Sector Spotlight: Solar Stocks Shine—Meta Dims Under AI Scrutiny

While broad indexes barely moved this week, sector moves told a more interesting story.

Solar and clean energy stocks rallied hard. First Solar jumped nearly 10%, Sunrun gained 11%, and others in the renewable energy complex climbed on optimism around extended U.S. clean-energy tax credits. With the policy backdrop turning more favorable, investors see tailwinds for growth in solar deployment.

On the flip side, Meta slid more than 2%. Questions continue to swirl over the company’s heavy spending on AI research, augmented reality, and metaverse projects. Regulators are scrutinizing data usage, while investors debate whether those moonshot bets will pay off.

Meanwhile, chipmaker Micron ticked up 2.2%, a sign that parts of the semiconductor sector still draw buying interest, even as volume thins out in late August trading.

💡 Policy can act as a powerful catalyst—just as we saw this week with solar.

💡 Mega-caps like Meta show the other side of the coin: even innovative companies face real risks when their strategies outpace regulatory or investor confidence.

📈 Ribbon Trends: AI, Chips, and Clean Energy

If we zoom out, three themes thread through markets right now:

1. Artificial Intelligence and Oversight
   Big Tech’s AI race has boosted valuations but raised concerns—about regulation, data security, and the return on massive R&D spending. Investors are still figuring out how to price the balance of opportunity and risk.

2. Semiconductors as Infrastructure
   Micron’s modest gains highlight how chips underpin both AI and broader digital infrastructure. Demand remains cyclical, but long-term growth trends in cloud computing, data centers, and automation remain intact.

3. Clean Energy’s Political Tailwind
   Policy support gave solar stocks their biggest weekly pop in months. Whether this momentum sticks depends on execution: are these companies able to turn subsidies into sustainable earnings growth?

It’s important to note that these aren’t isolated moves. They reflect broader capital flows—into AI’s future, chips’ backbone role, and clean energy’s policy-driven growth.

🛒 Earnings Watch: Walmart & the Consumer Pulse

Beyond policy, investors turned to earnings for clues about the real economy. Walmart, America’s largest retailer, is due to report this week. Its results often serve as a bellwether for household spending.

Analysts expect modest same-store sales growth, with strength in groceries offsetting weaker discretionary spending. That mix tells a story: consumers remain cautious, prioritizing essentials while pulling back on bigger-ticket items.

If Walmart shows resilience, it supports the view that the U.S. consumer—responsible for nearly 70% of GDP—is still powering through higher borrowing costs. A softer read could raise recession chatter, particularly if paired with Powell emphasizing patience at Jackson Hole.

💡 Retail earnings are less about one company and more about consumer health.

💡 Household spending data often foreshadows broader economic shifts before they appear in GDP numbers.

🌍 Geopolitics in Focus: Ukraine Talks & Market Ripples

Global politics also loomed large this week. President Trump hosted Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and European leaders in Washington for talks aimed at exploring a path toward peace. Markets didn’t move dramatically on headlines, but risk sentiment remains fragile.

Energy traders are watching developments closely. If talks ease tensions, oil prices could stabilize. If they falter, supply disruptions could again become a market driver. For equities, investors are mainly focused on whether geopolitical risks spill over into trade, tariffs, or broader uncertainty.

💡 Political risk doesn’t always move markets instantly, but it sets the backdrop for volatility.

💡 Diversification remains one of the most reliable defenses against geopolitical surprises.

🔎 Surmount Strategy Spotlight: SP-10

Given this week’s themes—mega-cap tech scrutiny, solar policy tailwinds, and the Fed’s central role—the strategy best aligned for readers is SP-10.

This strategy invests exclusively in the ten largest companies in the S&P 500: firms with dominant market share, strong balance sheets, and deep liquidity. These are the very stocks that often move markets during Fed weeks and sector rotations.

• Powell’s tone could directly swing mega-caps.

• Sector divergences—tech under pressure, energy and renewables rallying—highlight the need to track market leaders.

• Concentration in the top 10 companies means exposure to the biggest drivers of U.S. equity returns.

SP-10 doesn’t promise protection from volatility, but it gives investors a transparent way to follow the market’s most influential stocks. For those who want to focus on the firms shaping indexes week in and week out, it’s a strategy worth knowing.

Final Word

This week’s markets embodied August’s paradox: surface calm, but plenty happening underneath. From Powell’s upcoming speech to Walmart’s earnings and solar’s rally, investors received reminders that macro, micro, and policy all intersect in complex ways.

At Surmount, we believe in cutting through the noise with data-driven strategies. Rather than chasing each headline, aligning with structured approaches—like SP-10—can provide a disciplined way to engage with markets dominated by mega-caps.

Stay steady, stay informed, and stay systematic.

Until next week,
The Surmount Team