THIS WEEK’S BREAKDOWN

Global Growth Just Got Slashed — Here's How Smart Investors Should Pivot in 2025

The World Bank just revised 2025 global growth forecasts down to 2.3%—and it’s not just a paper cut. This is a structural downgrade driven by rising tariffs, persistent inflation, and political volatility. The U.S., Europe, China… nearly everyone is getting hit.

But here’s the thing: if you're just digesting this as headline noise, you're already playing from behind. Because the real edge for investors in 2025 isn’t just knowing that growth is slowing — it’s understanding how to strategically position for what’s coming next.

Let’s unpack what’s really going on and go a layer deeper than most market commentary dares.

Under the Hood: Why This Growth Downgrade Matters (More Than You Think)

1. Global Trade Is Seizing Up

Global trade growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 — a steep drop from the 5.9% annual average seen in the 2000s. That’s not just a stat. That’s a structural unwind of the engine that powered globalization.

This means:

• Export-driven EMs are vulnerable: Countries like Mexico and much of Southeast Asia will struggle to keep momentum.

• Multinational margins will compress: Sourcing is costlier and less efficient under fragmented trade regimes.

• Capital investment gets delayed: Why would you expand production when tariff rules might change next quarter?

This isn’t a cyclical problem. It’s systemic friction. And friction favors adaptation over accumulation.

2. Tariffs Are Quietly Inflationary — and That’s a Bigger Problem Than It Seems

The World Bank projects global inflation at 2.9% for 2025 — still elevated above pre-pandemic norms. But here’s what most retail investors miss: it’s not just “hot” inflation from demand. It’s sticky, supply-side inflation caused by tariffs and disrupted logistics.

Translation: You can't just “wait it out.” We’re entering a prolonged phase of embedded costs — not because demand is too high, but because supply is inefficient.

And with the Fed (and other central banks) walking a tightrope between growth and price stability, you can’t rely on rate cuts to juice returns like before.

Traditional long-only, passive index exposure could underperform for years. This is the time to embrace strategies that can adapt to dispersion, volatility, and sector rotation.

3. When Macro Gets Murky, Signal-Based Strategies Win

In environments like this, investing on headlines or gut instinct becomes a liability. The macro “fog” is dense. You need systems that don’t flinch in the chaos.

That’s where automated strategies shine — not just by saving time, but by using data and rules to adjust before retail sentiment catches up.

And one strategy on Surmount stands out right now:

Strategy Spotlight: Tesla Short and Long EMA

• High volatility = high opportunity: Tesla’s volatility mirrors the macro environment. That makes it the perfect vehicle (pun intended) for a responsive, rule-based momentum strategy.

• Avoids dead money traps: Instead of holding through drawdowns, this strategy exits when short-term momentum turns — meaning you sidestep major slumps.

• Emotion-proof: No second-guessing whether to “buy the dip” or “hold for the bounce.” It trades based on market behavior, not investor feelings.

In a climate where trending behavior is short-lived and sentiment turns fast, this strategy excels by moving with the price, not against it.

4. Reframe Risk: Think in Terms of Adaptive Capacity

The biggest mistake you can make now is looking at a portfolio and asking, “Will this survive a recession?” The better question: “Does this portfolio adapt as the cycle shifts?”

Whether it’s a tariff spike, an earnings reset, or a growth surprise, adaptability is the new alpha. That’s where automated strategies — especially those with tight logic and specific price triggers — beat human intuition.

Surmount’s entire approach was built for this. You don’t need to reinvent your entire portfolio — you just need to add strategies that respond when markets move sideways or shift sharply.

The Playbook Moving Forward

If you want to stay ahead of the pack in this lower-growth, high-volatility world, here’s how to reframe your approach:

• Ditch prediction, embrace reaction: Use price-driven logic instead of macro guesses.

• Add signal-based strategies: Like the Tesla Short and Long EMA — strategies that only act when market behavior warrants it.

• Rotate with intent: Static asset allocations underperform in regime-shift years like this.

• Keep macro in mind, but don’t be paralyzed by it: The game now is staying flexible and data-driven.

The economy may be slowing, but that doesn’t mean your portfolio has to.